For those that have not followed me since 2005, allow me to say, I told them so. Back in 2009, I warned Inflation was coming with all this stimulation, and here it comes (in 2021). Mark my words this is only the beginning.
OK, so I am very much the Blogger who Cried Wolf on Inflation. I am not even sure this is going to be the beginning of an Inflationary spiral.
Stats Canada thinks:
Year-over-year consumer price growth (+3.4%) in April rose at its fastest pace since May 2011 amid the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly because prices fell sharply during the early months of the pandemic. As some regions extended restrictions to limit the spread of COVID-19, causing employment losses for some Canadians, prices grew 0.5% month over month in April 2021, the same growth rate as in March 2021.
Prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Transportation prices (+9.4%) increased in April, mainly because of higher gasoline prices compared with April 2020.
From Stats Canada Consumer Price Index, April 2021
Funny no mention of the Trillions being poured into the Economy by every Government world-wide? Maybe they ran out of ink? The Moore’s Law like growth of Real Estate prices not too much of a factor?
The Food thing is going to get worse, with the inability to get the migrant workers that our farms rely on into the country. Is it a good thing we need migrants to do this job? That is for another days discussion. Oh and Electricity prices in Ontario went “back up” when they changed back to a “peak” and “off peak” billing again.
What does the Bank of Canada think about this? Actually using their calculations we are only a little bit above their goals?
| January 2021 | February 2021 | March 2021 | April 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | % change | % change | % change | |
| CPI-common3,5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| CPI-median4,6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| CPI-trim4,7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Source(s):Table 18-10-0256-01.
Additional Reads From Stats Canada
- The Consumer Price Index and COVID-19: A One-Year Retrospective a useful read to get some perspective on the possible whiplash inflation that may come from all the stimulation forced into the economy.
Previous Rants About Inflation
- Inflation at 2011 levels ? OK, so I have even written this title before? Yes, I need more imagination.
- Bank in 2017 Inflation Still Under 2 Pct (for now) so things were OK back then too.
- Previously I have written a lot about inflation, here is a small taste. Note the snappy titles.
- The year was 2016
- Shocking Electricity Price in August (CPI Canada)
- Electricity Prices Continue to Sizzle in July
- Zap! Electricity Prices Pushes Inflation in June
- Expensive Food and Shelter in April in Canada
- Good Food Still Is Not Cheap in Canada (Inflation for March)
- Food Prices Continue to Rise for February
- Veggies up 18.2 pct in Canada
- Now for 2015
- The year was 2016
And that is just scratching the surface.
Rightly said. Inflation looks like will knock us down throughout 2022.
Well, with enough time on your side, you got it right – for now.
Waiting to hear someone say – this to will pass. I think that is what the fed is trying to tell us for now.
Personal opinion is that it is going up. How far and for how long is to be determined. Lived through the exorbitant rates in the late seventies & eighties. Was paying 14% on my mortgage back then. Also profited getting 20% for 5 years on an RRSP placement.
Don’t worry, it is different this time 0r so some will say.
Some might consider going to a more cash based portfolio to take advantage of the swings that will occur.
RICARDO
Swings? I’d guess more like whiplash, but it could be very interesting times ahead.