Inflation Jumps in March 2014

Thanks to the new Energy Crisis (or energy gouging, depending on how you want to look at it), Inflation started to jump in March (year over year) by 1.5%.

Specifically, Stats Canada points out in their report:

The larger year-over-year rise in the CPI in March compared with February was led by energy prices, which rose 4.6% in the 12 months to March, following a 1.6% increase in February. Gasoline prices rose 1.4% on a year-over-year basis, after decreasing 1.3% in February. In addition, the natural gas index increased 17.9% in March, following a 5.5% rise in February. The rise in the natural gas index in March was mainly attributable to a price increase in Alberta.

Enbridge is jumping natural gas prices, Ontario is jacking up their Electricity rates, and gas prices are going up like wildfire in Ottawa. All in all, I smell a start to inflation again. We shall see if I am correct or not.

A fascinating saw tooth pattern seems to be happening over the past while.

Overall if this trend continues, it might get the Bank of Canada’s attention.

Bank of Canada’s Index

Remembering that the Bank of Canada has its own “basket of goods” that it measures inflation with, their version of inflation was not quite as high as Stats Canada’s version:

The Bank of Canada's core index rose 1.3% in the 12 months to March, after increasing 1.2% in February.

Not as high, but still troubling.

The Big Table

What is going up in price? Here is a non-seasonally adjusted table for you (look for Shelter, Energy, and Alcohol):

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada Not seasonally adjusted

	Relative import1	March 2013	Feb 2014	Mar 2014	Feb to Mar 2014	Mar 2013 to Mar 2014
	%	(2002=100)			% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)	100.002	122.9	124.1	124.8	0.6	1.5
Food	16.60	132.4	134.3	134.4	0.1	1.5
Shelter	26.26	128.0	130.7	131.4	0.5	2.7
Household operations, furnishings and equipment	12.66	114.7	115.3	115.7	0.3	0.9
Clothing and footwear	5.82	95.3	91.0	94.0	3.3	-1.4
Transportation	19.98	129.5	130.8	131.7	0.7	1.7
Health and personal care	4.93	118.3	118.4	118.1	-0.3	-0.2
Recreation, education and reading	10.96	105.2	106.4	106.5	0.1	1.2
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products	2.79	139.8	142.9	145.3	1.7	3.9
Special aggregates
Core CPI3	84.91	120.9	122.1	122.5	0.3	1.3
All-items CPI excluding energy	91.44	120.0	121.0	121.5	0.4	1.3
Energy4	8.56	159.9	162.6	167.2	2.8	4.6
Gasoline	4.62	186.5	183.7	189.2	3.0	1.4
All-items CPI excluding food and energy	74.85	117.2	118.2	118.6	0.3	1.2
Goods	48.18	115.4	115.6	117.0	1.2	1.4
Services	51.82	130.3	132.5	132.5	0.0	1.7

1.2011 CPI basket weights at January 2013 prices, Canada, effective February 2013. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2.Figures may not add up to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada’s core index excludes eight of the CPI’s most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, consult the Bank of Canada website .

4.The special aggregate “Energy” includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

Inflation in 2014

How did Inflation go in 2014?

• Gas Prices Drive Down Inflation in December 2014 to 1.5%
• Low Gas Prices puts Inflation at 2.0% In November
• Inflation Stays High Despite Lower Gas in October
• Inflation at 2.1 for August in Canada
• Inflation Stays up in June 2014 in Canada
• Who said Inflation ? CPI Up in Canada
• CPI Jumps to 2.0 in April 2014 in Canada
• Inflation Jumps in March 2014
• Inflation at 1.1%, That is Low for February
• CPI Up A Little to Start 2014 in Canada
• Christmas CPI Data Ho Ho Ho