Apologies to my regular readers, only now catching up with my friends at Stats Canada who last Friday published their monthly Consumer Price Index for August 2012, and some OK news in there for Canadians, in that Inflation continues to grow at a slowish rate.
To be exact our friends said:
Consumer prices rose 1.2% in the 12 months to August, following a 1.3% gain in July. Higher prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles, gasoline, meat and food purchased from restaurants were major factors in the year-over-year increase of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Given the ups and downs of Gas prices that I have seen, inflation running this low is good news. With the drought in Eastern Canada, watch for food prices to go up, with many farmers claiming whole crop failures thanks to lack of rain and weather issues.
Are we really on a downward run here on inflation? I think the Bank of Canada hopes not, because if they introduce tighter money policy, what might happen then? Interesting question.
What is energy doing, you ask? Up and down in lots of spots, but effectively nothing? That is what seems to be happening if you look at this graph of the Energy Index:
How is it that it says almost zero yet gas prices are up? Oh yes, my Natural Gas bill is down, fancy that?
Bank of Canada’s core index
More importantly given our friends at the Bank of Canada measure inflation a little differently, what do they think of our inflation?
The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 1.6% in the 12 months to August, following a 1.7% gain in July.On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index rose 0.3% in August after posting no change in June and July.
Well that is bloody low too, isn’t it?
The Big Table
OK, where are we seeing the biggest growth then? The only way you are figuring that out is if you have a look at one of the big tables from Stats Canada:
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada – Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative importance1 | August 2011 | July 2012 | August 2012 | July to August 2012 | August 2011 to August 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.002 | 120.3 | 121.5 | 121.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Food | 15.99 | 128.9 | 131.7 | 131.7 | 0.0 | 2.2 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 126.2 | 127.2 | 127.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 111.2 | 113.0 | 112.7 | -0.3 | 1.3 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 90.6 | 89.1 | 89.5 | 0.4 | -1.2 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 125.3 | 126.4 | 127.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 117.5 | 118.5 | 119.8 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 106.4 | 107.2 | 107.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 136.1 | 137.6 | 137.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI3 | 82.15 | 117.8 | 119.3 | 119.7 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 117.2 | 118.7 | 118.8 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Energy4 | 10.08 | 157.9 | 156.0 | 159.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 181.0 | 180.1 | 184.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 114.7 | 115.8 | 116.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 113.2 | 113.2 | 114.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Services | 52.20 | 127.3 | 129.7 | 129.6 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
This keeps me thinking – where did all the stimulus go? What is wrong with this inflation targeting system?
This inflation news is very good for the economy and consumers, businesses and the business as a whole. Hopefully it remain at a decent rate until the economy can continue to recover. Interestingly enough Ontario is leading the nation through the recovery http://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2011/07/ontario-leads-canada-through-economic-recovery.html