The alleged drop in the Unemployment rate is mostly from folks who gave up looking for jobs, so don’t start thinking the economy is turning around (just yet).
Employment was unchanged in February. A decline in the number of people searching for work pushed the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.4%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up by 121,000 (+0.7%), with the bulk of the increase occurring in the first half of the period.
So that is a little depressing to hear, fewer people looking for a job is reason to lower numbers? That is very worrisome.
So where did these changes mostly happen?
Employment for the month declined in retail and wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; health care and social assistance; and public administration. These declines were offset by increases in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; educational services; and business, building and other support services.
How in an aging population can a drop in Health Care employment? These are very interesting times.
Note the graphic does not have an arrow pointing out that folks stopped looking for jobs to make that “drop” happen.
The Big Table
Stats Canada puts out some great data as well as this report, and I love the tables as well, so go over and check them out as well:
Labour force characteristics by age and sex – Seasonally adjusted
| January 2012 | February 2012 | Jan to Feb 2012 |
Feb 2011 to Feb 2012 |
Jan to Feb 2012 |
Feb 2011 to Feb 2012 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thousands (except rates) | change in thousands (except rates) | % change | ||||
| Both sexes, 15 years and over | ||||||
| Population | 28,156.4 | 28,180.9 | 24.5 | 314.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Labour force | 18,778.2 | 18,740.3 | -37.9 | 69.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Employment | 17,357.0 | 17,354.2 | -2.8 | 120.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Full-time | 14,048.9 | 14,058.0 | 9.1 | 203.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Part-time | 3,308.1 | 3,296.1 | -12.0 | -83.4 | -0.4 | -2.5 |
| Unemployment | 1,421.2 | 1,386.2 | -35.0 | -50.7 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| Participation rate | 66.7 | 66.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | … | … |
| Unemployment rate | 7.6 | 7.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | … | … |
| Employment rate | 61.6 | 61.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | … | … |
| Part-time rate | 19.1 | 19.0 | -0.1 | -0.6 | … | Â … |
| Youths, 15 to 24 years | ||||||
| Population | 4,457.0 | 4,456.2 | -0.8 | -2.6 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Labour force | 2,847.8 | 2,822.8 | -25.0 | -67.2 | -0.9 | -2.3 |
| Employment | 2,435.9 | 2,409.1 | -26.8 | -68.7 | -1.1 | -2.8 |
| Full-time | 1,270.0 | 1,268.8 | -1.2 | -20.1 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| Part-time | 1,165.9 | 1,140.3 | -25.6 | -48.6 | -2.2 | -4.1 |
| Unemployment | 411.9 | 413.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Participation rate | 63.9 | 63.3 | -0.6 | -1.5 | … | … |
| Unemployment rate | 14.5 | 14.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | … | … |
| Employment rate | 54.7 | 54.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 | … | … |
| Part-time rate | 47.9 | 47.3 | -0.6 | -0.7 | … | Â … |
| Men, 25 years and over | ||||||
| Population | 11,596.5 | 11,609.3 | 12.8 | 158.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Labour force | 8,431.8 | 8,429.3 | -2.5 | 79.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Employment | 7,873.7 | 7,899.5 | 25.8 | 111.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Full-time | 7,261.9 | 7,281.3 | 19.4 | 122.5 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Part-time | 611.9 | 618.2 | 6.3 | -11.2 | 1.0 | -1.8 |
| Unemployment | 558.1 | 529.8 | -28.3 | -31.9 | -5.1 | -5.7 |
| Participation rate | 72.7 | 72.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | … | … |
| Unemployment rate | 6.6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | … | … |
| Employment rate | 67.9 | 68.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | … | … |
| Part-time rate | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | -0.3 | … | Â … |
| Women, 25 years and over | ||||||
| Population | 12,102.9 | 12,115.4 | 12.5 | 158.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Labour force | 7,498.6 | 7,488.2 | -10.4 | 57.5 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Employment | 7,047.3 | 7,045.6 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Full-time | 5,517.0 | 5,508.0 | -9.0 | 101.4 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Part-time | 1,530.3 | 1,537.6 | 7.3 | -23.5 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| Unemployment | 451.3 | 442.6 | -8.7 | -20.3 | -1.9 | -4.4 |
| Participation rate | 62.0 | 61.8 | -0.2 | -0.3 | … | … |
| Unemployment rate | 6.0 | 5.9 | -0.1 | -0.3 | … | … |
| Employment rate | 58.2 | 58.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | … | … |
| Part-time rate | 21.7 | 21.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | … | Â … |
The quality of the unemployment statistic (as well as the selective statistics released by StatsCan in their regular report) are suspect.
(1) does not consider people who have given up or who have gone back to school (this is a massive #)
(2) does not properly observe the shift from full time to part time work
(3) does not consider the significant decline in job quality (pay, benefits, and interesting work)
(4) does not consider underemployment, where a person has received a lot of education but doesn’t use it
(5) does not consider the shift from permanent employment to unstable contract and self-employment arrangements
(6) does not consider the shift in sectors, from manufacturing jobs that produce wealth to service/knowledge economy jobs that are often just F.I.RE jobs
With the real numbers in hand, I’m sure it’d become a lot clearer that we’re in the hole much deeper than a recession. Recessions aren’t predicated on asset bubbles (housing and, more widely, debt). Recessions don’t have fits-and-starts of +ve and -ve growth. Recessions don’t last for five years and still have a jobless recovery. You know what meets all of these criteria? A depression. The last one we had was the Great Depression. North America experienced several depressions before then. We’re actually overdue for one… But sure, it’s just a really weird “recession”. Why not?