So the news continues to be neither good nor bad (ni bon ni mal?), as Inflation continues to chug along at 2.5% for the year ending in January 2012, whereas last month it was at 2.3%, so it is going back up. Stats Canada’s report shows a few nasty things to note:
Food prices rose 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in January following a 4.4% increase in December. In January, consumers paid 4.9% more for food purchased from stores and 2.8% more for food purchased from restaurants compared with January 2011.
The cost of energy advanced 6.5% in the 12 months to January, after rising 6.0% in December. Gasoline prices increased 6.8% in January. The electricity index rose 7.3%, with notable increases recorded in Alberta and Nova Scotia. Prices for fuel oil went up 17.1% while natural gas prices fell 0.7%.
OK, so that one really does worry me. All energy is going up in price and so is food, and frankly the rest of the index means little or nothing to me, so what I am reading is that the Real BCM Index is actually at 5.35%? This makes me (BCM) very unhappy. Living expenses should be part of the BCM index, but for now, it’s not that big a jump, but I am astounded that the media does not make more of a stink about the energy and food portion of things?
The problem with this graphic is that it should include a Food and Energy ALONE line as well. If anyone from Stats Canada is reading, please add THAT line to get across the point that Food and Energy are spiraling up in a very nasty way.
Bank of Canada’s core index
The folks at the Bank of Canada have their own way of looking at the index, so here is their view on things:
The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 2.1% in the 12 months to January, after increasing 1.9% in December. Notable increases were recorded for electricity, food purchased from restaurants and homeowners’ replacement costs.The seasonally adjusted monthly core index rose 0.3% in January after falling 0.1% in December.
The good news is this is within their “I don’t like it, but we won’t do anything” range, but it is starting to get into the “we are annoyed and will do something” range too.
The Big Table
My favorite parts of these posts are the HUGE Table that Stats Canada includes with the monthly post.
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada – Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative import¹ | January 2011 | Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | Dec 2011 to Jan 2012 | Jan 2011 to Jan 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.00² | 117.8 | 120.2 | 120.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Food | 15.99 | 124.9 | 129.3 | 130.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 124.5 | 126.8 | 127.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 109.6 | 111.8 | 112.2 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 87.9 | 89.1 | 89.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 122.8 | 125.2 | 127.4 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 115.8 | 118.1 | 118.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 102.7 | 104.1 | 102.6 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 135.2 | 135.8 | 136.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI³ | 82.15 | 116.0 | 118.2 | 118.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 115.5 | 117.5 | 117.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Energy4 | 10.08 | 146.0 | 152.7 | 155.5 | 1.8 | 6.5 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 163.6 | 170.0 | 174.7 | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 113.4 | 115.0 | 115.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 110.5 | 112.6 | 113.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| Services | 52.20 | 125.0 | 127.7 | 127.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
Really? You believe StatsCan #s? Inflation has been at under 3% for years, meanwhile the housing market has skyrocketed at 10%+ for the last decade?Unemployment doesn’t track the massive shifts from full to part time work, $50/hr auto manufacturing jobs to $10/hr call center jobs, permanent work to contract/self-employment, employment in one’s field of training to unrelated survival employment. StatsCan COULD track these numbers, but they don’t. Instead they put out absolute garbage.
The truth about CPI, Unemployment stats, etc. is that if StatsCan published the real numbers it’d reveal the truth – that Canada is, at best, experiencing stagflation (those secret Cdn bank bailouts by CMHC and the feds required us to print a lot of money!) and, at worst, a depression. When was the last time that we had a protracted, five year “recession” predicated on an asset bubble (rather than the mere ebb and flow of inventories and inflation) wherein growth occured before turning to contraction in constant fits and starts? The answer is the great depression. Interestingly, depressions used to happen every 50 or so years, until the Great Depression. If this isn’t a depression, I don’t want to see one…