Our friends at Stats Canada published the November CPI numbers for Canada yesterday and the good news is that the rate of growth has not changed from October, however it is still relatively high at 2.9%. This increase is in spite of Gasoline prices moderating, and is caused mostly by food price increases (which hurts everyone).
Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months to November, matching the increase in October. While the 12-month change in gasoline prices continued to ease, the year-over-year increase in food prices remained high.
It seems like Gas and Food take turns on who(m) will be the key element to keep driving inflation, but food prices are most certainly up in the Ottawa area, whereas gasoline has been dropping slowly in price (although I do fully expect a Christmas spike in the next few days).
As you can see Gas prices are moderating (somewhat), but then again, while the price is moderating, it isn’t really dropping by that much either. I guess those folks who bought Hybrids 2 years ago are chuckling to themselves.
More interesting is seeing CPI not including food, which makes the whole CPI thing a non-issue (in my opinion). Food prices jumping hurts everyone, especially lower income folks or fixed income folks.
This graph is really telling, because it shows the erosion of the value of your earned dollars compared to inflation, not the steepness of the curve lately? Never a good thing.
Bank of Canada’s core index
The Bank of Canada’s core index, which excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile components as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components, rose 2.1% in the 12 months to November. This matched the rise posted in October. Increases were recorded for passenger vehicle insurance premiums, meat and bakery products.
This is better news for interest rates, but inflation does continue it’s slow methodical upward push, and when will higher interest rates be coming? I have no idea any more.
The Big Table
For my regular readers here is my favorite part of the Stats Canada report, the Big Table which shows each part of the index, enjoy it and look closely!
Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada – Not seasonally adjusted
| Relative import¹ | Nov 2010 | Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | Oct to Nov 2011 | Nov 2010 to Nov 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (2002=100) | % change | ||||
| All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 100.00² | 117.5 | 120.8 | 120.9 | 0.1 | 2.9 |
| Food | 15.99 | 123.3 | 128.0 | 129.2 | 0.9 | 4.8 |
| Shelter | 27.49 | 124.4 | 126.5 | 126.3 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.55 | 109.5 | 111.9 | 112.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.31 | 92.1 | 96.1 | 93.1 | -3.1 | 1.1 |
| Transportation | 20.60 | 120.7 | 126.5 | 127.6 | 0.9 | 5.7 |
| Health and personal care | 4.95 | 116.1 | 117.4 | 117.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 11.20 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 104.8 | -1.1 | 0.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 2.91 | 134.6 | 135.8 | 135.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Special aggregates | ||||||
| Core CPI³ | 82.15 | 116.3 | 118.7 | 118.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| All-items CPI excluding energy | 89.92 | 115.6 | 117.9 | 118.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Energy | 10.08 | 141.3 | 156.9 | 154.1 | -1.8 | 9.1 |
| Gasoline | 5.80 | 154.4 | 179.4 | 175.2 | -2.3 | 13.5 |
| All-items CPI excluding food and energy | 73.93 | 113.9 | 115.6 | 115.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 47.80 | 110.1 | 113.9 | 113.8 | -0.1 | 3.4 |
| Services | 52.20 | 125.0 | 127.7 | 127.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
