Tickling up CPI
Stats Canada announced on Friday that the CPI rate of increase ticked up a bit more in September, hitting 1.9% (over 12 months) up from last month’s yearly rate of 1.7%. The usual culprit of Energy in general and Gas and Electricity in specific seem to be causing this increase. The problem with increases in Energy is that it then trickles into all other aspects of the Basket of Goods, and we get Ripple Increases as well, which could cause the Bank of Canada to rethink it’s laissez faire view on Interest Rates.
Wow, I sound like a real economist there, don’t I (i.e. I took a little information, obfuscated it, and then made a non-commital statement about it), maybe I missed my calling?
Energy prices advanced 5.6% during the 12 months to September, following a 5.0% increase in August. Prices for electricity rose 7.7% in September compared with the same month a year earlier.
Excluding energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 1.5% in September.
The way that Gas prices have been jumping in Ottawa and Montreal, my guess is that the CPI will continue it’s upward trends for a while, and may see a big jump next month, due to the price increases seen locally.
Again Ontario led the way with a 2.9% increase year over year, which makes us all proud here in Fortress Ontario. Electricity prices and homeowner replacement costs seem to be causing the jumps here. Must be an electrons shortage causing Electricity prices to jump? Dammit we need to smash more atoms!
Bank of Canada Basket
The Bank of Canada’s basket of goods that makes up the CPI was up 1.5% (year over year) in September down from the August 1.6% yearly rate. Aren’t statistics wonderful things, it all depends on what you count and when you count it, and you can have contradictory stories from the same data (or at least data from the same sources). This is well within the Bank of Canada’s range of inflation, so any interest rate increase on this data is less likely to occur (we hope).
The Big Table
I love the big table, it makes me feel good knowing where the biggest price jumps are, and helps me understand why my effective income shrinks the way it does. You can check the Stats Canada web page and see this as well.
| Â | Relative import | Sept 2009 | August 2010 | Sept 2010 | Aug to Sept 2010 | Sept 2009 to Sept 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | Not seasonally adjusted | ||||
| Â | Â | (2002=100) | % change | |||
| All-items | 100.00 | 114.7 | 116.7 | 116.9 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| Food | 17.04 | 120.4 | 123.5 | 122.9 | -0.5 | 2.1 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 120.9 | 124.0 | 123.9 | -0.1 | 2.5 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | 11.10 | 107.9 | 109.0 | 109.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 94.9 | 90.1 | 92.8 | 3.0 | -2.2 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 113.6 | 117.1 | 117.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 113.7 | 116.4 | 116.1 | -0.3 | 2.1 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 104.9 | 105.0 | 105.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 131.3 | 134.4 | 134.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| Special aggregates | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Core CPI | 82.71 | 114.1 | 115.6 | 115.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| All-items excluding energy | 90.62 | 113.4 | 114.9 | 115.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 131.3 | 139.2 | 138.7 | -0.4 | 5.6 |
| Gasoline | 4.92 | 142.6 | 147.4 | 147.0 | -0.3 | 3.1 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 111.8 | 113.0 | 113.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goods | 48.78 | 107.4 | 109.1 | 109.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Services | 51.22 | 121.9 | 124.3 | 124.5 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
Darn, I love a good table of numbers, nothing finer.
CPI rising is definitely concerns all of us personally,but we need to look at the bigger economics perspective it is moreover the sign of recovery.
Nothing like energy prices affecting everything… again…
1.9% is very close to what the BoC has been targeting for the last 20 years: 2%.
I always heard about these numbers in the news but never seen the table. Thanks for sharing it.
It’s interesting to see a drop in the Clothing & Footwear. One would think that it would increase proportionately to other sections. Is the drop related to the cheap imported good in this sector?
Gah, looking at those numbers make me ill. I would love prices to just stay the same