Sorry but I am derailing my discussions of Risk until Monday of next week with this week’s CPI numbers coming out and the Random Thoughts for Friday.
CPI Delta Returns to Positive
Yes the CPI for October is up 0.1% year over year (as opposed to last month’s year over year which was negative), this means a modest increase overall in prices, which sounds good, but as usual the numbers may not reflect exactly what is really going on with prices in the marketplace.
Well you might ask the question, how much did energy affect this whole thing? Have a look at this graph:
Six of Eight Components Up
The bad part about this is that energy still is buffering the index from reflecting real price increases in most areas of the CPI itself. Stats Canada points out:
Major components in the CPI recording price increases in October were: food; household operations, furnishings and equipment; recreation, education and reading; health and personal care; clothing and footwear; and alcoholic beverages and tobacco products.
I am getting tired of the price gouging on SIN items like liquor and smokes (luckily lottery ticket prices aren’t going up in prices, or I’d have nothing to buy on Fridays).
Bank of Canada Core Up
The Bank of Canada’s Core rate is at 1.8% year over year, which is creeping into the “optimal” range for the Bank of Canada, but it also means that if prices go up a little bit more (as a percentage), then we might see some action from the central bank in this area (i.e. Bank Rate hikes).
The Big Table
| Â | Relative import | October 2008 | October 2009 | Â | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | |||||
| Â | Unadjusted | ||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | % change | |
| All-items | 100.00 | 114.5 | 114.6 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| Food | 17.04 | 117.4 | 120.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 123.2 | 121.2 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| Household operations and furnishings | 11.10 | 105.2 | 107.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 94.4 | 95.0 | -1.2 | 0.6 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 117.0 | 113.4 | -7.2 | -3.1 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 109.2 | 112.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 128.0 | 131.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| All-items (1992=100) | Â | 136.3 | 136.4 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| Special aggregates | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Goods | 48.78 | 108.9 | 107.0 | -3.7 | -1.7 |
| Services | 51.22 | 120.0 | 122.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 110.6 | 112.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 147.5 | 128.8 | -18.7 | -12.7 |
| Core CPI | 82.71 | 112.2 | 114.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Reader’s Note: Tomorrow will be my regular Random Thoughts post, and the conclusion of my Risk and Life postings will be on Monday.
Inflation in 2009
- Inflation Edges Up in December 2009 for the first time in a while
- How do you spell INFLATION? In November, evidently, it looked like it might start again
- Consumer Price Index is Trending Up Again in October of 2009
- CPI: How Many Negatives Make it Deflation? a good question for September 2009
- CPI Down Again (kind of) for August of 2009. Is that really deflation?
- Deflation again! CPI Down for July (sort of) really deflation? Not really.
- Inflation down 0.3% for June most of this in June 2009 is caused by gasoline pricing silliness.
- Consumer Price Index for May 2009: Nudges Up but overall it keeps looking like not much
- CPI For April 2009 at 0.4% Wow , calm down big fella it is not that good news
- Consumer Price Index Down a Little for March 2009 which is a good thing, don’t you think?
- Inflation Jumps for February 2009, did it really?
Yeah, it’s been a frustrating year. I am an unusually small consumer of energy (live in an apartment, and I drive very little), so my actual cost of living has gone up more substantially than someone whose consumption habits are more in line with the CPI calculation. So the lack of raises that has been justified by a slow economy and no-inflation has just eaten further and further into my savings rate.
Gahh. Here’s hoping the next year will be better.
Next year will definitely include at least 365 days, and the sun will rise for most if not all of those days, other than that, I do not wish to prognosticate.
Which items in the big table are at record highs?
@MJM
Surprisingly the SIN items are at record highs, so yer smokes and booze are pretty darn expensive, while housing and shelter are still high they are off their record highs of a while ago