The Inflation Numbers for September 2009. Prices actually dropped then.
Stats Canada came out with the monthly CPI numbers and again prices were down 0.9% year over year (September 2008 to September 2009). September 2009 we were down 0.8% year over year so that means the drop continues (OK, not for real given this is all due to Gasoline price fluctuation), so when do we call it Deflation?
The major contributor to the year-over-year decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September was energy products, as it has been for a number of months. Overall, in the 12 months to September, energy prices fell 18.7%.
October 2009 from Statistics Canada
Interesting, but given Energy prices started to moderate about this time last year, we may not be able to take advantage of that for much longer (of course I did say that last month didn’t I?).
OK, so for real what were the big ups on the index? Food (of course), but surprisingly it seems to be moderating being only a 2.8% increase (year over year), however, Health and Personal Care is up 3.9% which is worrying with our aging work force (and with the looming PANDEMIC of Swine Flu). Alcohol and Fun stuff was up by 2.8% as well (why is it always the good stuff that keeps going up?), but Energies drop by 18.7% still looks astounding in the index.
The Big Deflation Table
| (2002=100) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relative import | Sept 2008 | Sept 2009 | Aug 2008 to Aug 2009 | Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 | |
| Unadjusted | |||||
| % change | |||||
| All-items | 100.00 | 115.7 | 114.7 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Food | 17.04 | 117.1 | 120.4 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 123.1 | 120.9 | -2.2 | -1.8 |
| Household operations and furnishings | 11.10 | 105.6 | 107.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 96.1 | 94.9 | -1.7 | -1.2 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 122.4 | 113.6 | -6.7 | -7.2 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 109.4 | 113.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 103.9 | 105.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 128.0 | 131.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| All-items (1992=100) | 137.7 | 136.5 | -0.7 | -0.9 | |
| Special aggregates | |||||
| Goods | 48.78 | 111.5 | 107.4 | -3.3 | -3.7 |
| Services | 51.22 | 119.8 | 121.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 110.8 | 111.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 161.5 | 131.3 | -19.1 | -18.7 |
| Core CPI4 | 82.71 | 112.4 | 114.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Inflation in 2009
- Inflation Edges Up in December 2009 for the first time in a while
- How do you spell INFLATION? In November, evidently, it looked like it might start again
- Consumer Price Index is Trending Up Again in October of 2009
- CPI: How Many Negatives Make it Deflation? a good question for September 2009
- CPI Down Again (kind of) for August of 2009. Is that really deflation?
- Deflation again! CPI Down for July (sort of) really deflation? Not really.
- Inflation down 0.3% for June most of this in June 2009 is caused by gasoline pricing silliness.
- Consumer Price Index for May 2009: Nudges Up but overall it keeps looking like not much
- CPI For April 2009 at 0.4% Wow , calm down big fella it is not that good news
- Consumer Price Index Down a Little for March 2009 which is a good thing, don’t you think?
- Inflation Jumps for February 2009, did it really?
It becomes deflation when core CPI goes negative. Until then, it’s fluctuation in volatile items (note that core CPI excludes both food and energy, the two biggest fluctuators).
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Headline CPI is useful for COLAs, since it reflects the actual difference in cost of living. But core CPI is the only thing that gives much indication of economic health.