These are the numbers from July 2009, as the recovery slowly started from the complete plotz of 2008.
Statistics Canada came out with another exciting set of CPI numbers showing (in a way) that our deflationary spiral is accelerating (if you consider a 0.3% drop the previous month and the alleged 0.9% drop in June as a significant acceleration). Soon I’ll be able to buy bread for 2 cents a loaf. No, not at all likely. The reason we have a “drop” in the CPI this month is Energy Products mostly (a 23.4% decline year over year in that sector), and remember those prices moderated late last year, so that drag on the CPI will disappear as a factor in a few months too.
The CPI excluding energy (not seasonally adjusted) is actually up 1.8% (which is still below the Bank of Canada’s goals for inflation), however, Food as a component is roaring ahead with a 5.0% (year over year) price increase (wish my investments had that kind of growth).
Gas prices
This graph shows how gas prices are lower right now, but look at the 2008 graph and how prices started to “moderate” in August and then dropped like a stone for the rest of the year. That damping force will be gone soon from the CPI numbers (so my bet is inflation is going to start moving up the charts again).
Housing costs have dropped as well with the price of Natural Gas dropping and the price of houses moderating as well (The shelter portion of the index fell by 2.0%).
Price of Sin increases
The Sin portion of the Index (OK Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Products) is up a healthy 3.1% year over year, which means we can’t even drown our sorrows without paying more (for shame!).
The BIG Table
Have a look at the non-adjusted table values, always an interesting read.
| Relative importance2 | July 2008 | July 2009 | June 2008 to June 2009 | July 2008 to July 2009 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted | |||||
| % change | |||||
| All-items | 100.003 | 115.8 | 114.7 | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| Food | 17.04 | 116.5 | 122.3 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 123.3 | 120.8 | -0.8 | -2.0 |
| Household operations and furnishings | 11.10 | 104.4 | 107.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 93.3 | 91.3 | -1.3 | -2.1 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 125.7 | 114.3 | -7.7 | -9.1 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 108.5 | 112.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 103.2 | 104.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 127.6 | 131.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| All-items (1992=100) | 137.8 | 136.5 | -0.2 | -0.9 | |
| Special aggregates | |||||
| Goods | 48.78 | 112.1 | 107.7 | -2.7 | -3.9 |
| Services | 51.22 | 119.4 | 121.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 110.4 | 111.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 169.1 | 129.6 | -19.0 | -23.4 |
| Core CPI4 | 82.71 | 111.7 | 113.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Inflation in 2009
- Inflation Edges Up in December 2009 for the first time in a while
- How do you spell INFLATION? In November, evidently, it looked like it might start again
- Consumer Price Index is Trending Up Again in October of 2009
- CPI: How Many Negatives Make it Deflation? a good question for September 2009
- CPI Down Again (kind of) for August of 2009. Is that really deflation?
- Deflation again! CPI Down for July (sort of) really deflation? Not really.
- Inflation down 0.3% for June most of this in June 2009 is caused by gasoline pricing silliness.
- Consumer Price Index for May 2009: Nudges Up but overall it keeps looking like not much
- CPI For April 2009 at 0.4% Wow , calm down big fella it is not that good news
- Consumer Price Index Down a Little for March 2009 which is a good thing, don’t you think?
- Inflation Jumps for February 2009, did it really?
