From April 2009 when the recovery from the 2008 Financial Debacle started fuelling Inflation Concerns.
Stats Canada published the CPI numbers yesterday and it was surprisingly low, at 0.4% for the entire 12 month period ending in April 2009. If you don’t count food the CPI was actually down by 1.1% over the previous 12 months, however if you don’t count energy the actual inflation is up 2.4% which just goes to show that food and energy are major standard deviation stretchers for the statistical data (in fact it’s not really a curve with a single Normal).
Food Up, Up, Up
The report says about food:
Prices increases for food were widespread in the 12 months to April. Large increases were recorded for fresh vegetables (+26.0%), fresh fruit (+16.8%), cereal products (+9.6%), beef (+9.0%) and chicken (+9.0%).
These numbers are wild. Fresh veggies have been on the rise but the reason why is not really obvious, unless you view it as an echo of last year’s gas price gouging (which seems to be returning this summer as well).
Energy and Transport Down, Down, Down
Two significant price drops were in Energy and Transport costs in general:
Gasoline prices fell 24.7% from April 2008 to April 2009 following a 12-month decline of 21.0% in March. The 12-month decline in April was due more to high prices in 2008 than to recent developments. On a month-to-month basis, gasoline prices rose 1.0% from March to April….
…. Natural gas prices fell 17.5% in the 12 months to April, following a 9.5% increase in March. Natural gas prices fell in most provinces, especially in Alberta and Ontario, where large drops largely accounted for the overall decrease…..
This explains why my Natural Gas bill is dropping, but Gasoline prices are starting to creep back up to $1 per liter again, even with little pressure on supplies, wonder why?
The Really Big Picture
| (2002=100) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relative importance2 | April 2008 | April 2009 | March 2008 to March 2009 | April 2008 to April 2009 | |
| Unadjusted | |||||
| % change | |||||
| All-items | 100.003 | 113.5 | 113.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Food | 17.04 | 113.5 | 121.6 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| Shelter | 26.62 | 121.2 | 121.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Household operations and furnishings | 11.10 | 104.4 | 107.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Clothing and footwear | 5.36 | 94.3 | 95.1 | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| Transportation | 19.88 | 120.1 | 110.5 | -6.2 | -8.0 |
| Health and personal care | 4.73 | 108.3 | 111.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Recreation, education and reading | 12.20 | 101.6 | 102.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products | 3.07 | 126.7 | 129.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| All-items (1992=100) | 135.1 | 135.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| Special aggregates | |||||
| Goods | 48.78 | 109.2 | 107.0 | -0.5 | -2.0 |
| Services | 51.22 | 117.7 | 120.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| All-items excluding food and energy | 73.57 | 109.9 | 111.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Energy | 9.38 | 150.2 | 123.9 | -11.2 | -17.5 |
| Core CPI4 | 82.71 | 111.2 | 113.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
Inflation in 2009
- Inflation Edges Up in December 2009 for the first time in a while
- How do you spell INFLATION? In November, evidently, it looked like it might start again
- Consumer Price Index is Trending Up Again in October of 2009
- CPI: How Many Negatives Make it Deflation? a good question for September 2009
- CPI Down Again (kind of) for August of 2009. Is that really deflation?
- Deflation again! CPI Down for July (sort of) really deflation? Not really.
- Inflation down 0.3% for June most of this in June 2009 is caused by gasoline pricing silliness.
- Consumer Price Index for May 2009: Nudges Up but overall it keeps looking like not much
- CPI For April 2009 at 0.4% Wow , calm down big fella it is not that good news
- Consumer Price Index Down a Little for March 2009 which is a good thing, don’t you think?
- Inflation Jumps for February 2009, did it really?
That scares me. Almost all the items in that “basket of goods” have a measure of discretion built into them, but food? We gotta eat, pure and simple. I’m going to try to do a bit of gardening up here in Yellowknife (wish me luck!) so that should help for 3 months at least.